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Baseball analogy to future Yellowstone caldera eruptions

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Baseball analogy to future Yellowstone caldera eruptions
October 15, 2012 04:25PM
Future Eruptions at Yellowstone Caldera

By Erik KlemettiEmail Author
September 20, 2012

... Think of it like this: Justin Verlander (see below) is a really good pitcher (yes, baseball analogy, sorry). He is one of a few pitchers in baseball history to have thrown multiple no-hitters (where the pitcher doesn’t give up a single hit across the entire game). The first he threw was on June 12, 2007 while the second was May 7, 2011. Between those two no hitters, Verlander started 127 games in which he did give up at least one hit (and 57 games since that last one). Sure, you can go out to the ballpark every time Verlander pitches and expect a no-hitter, but the likelihood is very low that you’re see him throw one. Most likely, you’ll see him throw a good game, maybe have a hot dog and generally, have a enjoyable time. Heck, if you had to pick one pitcher that has the highest likelihood of throwing a no-hitter at any given start, Verlander is a wise choice. Verlander has the potential to throw a no-hitter, but it is very unlikely. Expecting otherwise is unrealistic.

The same can be said for Yellowstone. Just because Yellowstone has produced three very large eruptions over the last 2.2 million years doesn’t mean that you should expect such an eruption. The caldera system has had plenty of smaller, dome-forming or explosive eruptions in the intervening years (and since the last caldera-forming eruption; see above), so in terms of the likeliest events, that is what to expect.

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