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Re: ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch

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avatar ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch
June 15, 2014 12:40PM
EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
5 June 2014

Synopsis: The chance of El Niño is 70% during the Northern Hemisphere summer and reaches 80% during the fall and winter.

Above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) expanded over the equatorial Pacific Ocean during May 2014 (Fig. 1), though the collective atmospheric and oceanic state continued to reflect ENSO-neutral. All of the Niño indices increased during the month, with the latest weekly values between 0.6oC and 1.6oC (Fig. 2). In contrast, subsurface temperature anomalies decreased over the last two months (Fig. 3), but still reflect a large pool of above-average temperatures at depth (Fig. 4). The low-level winds over the tropical Pacific remain near average, except for westerly anomalies over the eastern Pacific. At upper-levels, anomalous easterly winds have predominated over most of the equatorial Pacific. Unlike the previous month, convection was near average across most of the tropics (Fig. 5). The lack of a clear atmospheric response to the positive SSTs indicates ENSO-neutral, though the tropical Pacific continues to evolve toward El Niño.

Over the last month, the chance of El Niño and its ultimate strength weakened slightly in the models (Fig. 6). Regardless, the forecasters remain just as confident that El Niño is likely to emerge. If El Niño forms, the forecasters and most dynamical models, such as NCEP CFSv2, slightly favor a moderate-strength event during the Northern Hemisphere fall or winter (3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index between 1.0oC and 1.4oC). However, significant uncertainty accompanies this prediction, which remains inclusive of a weaker or stronger event due to the spread of the models and their skill at these lead times. Overall, the chance of El Niño is 70% during the Northern Hemisphere summer and reaches 80% during the fall and winter (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome).






Re: ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch
June 16, 2014 09:44PM
A Fourth Drought Year for California: What Are the Odds?
Craig Miller, KQED Science | June 15, 2014

... Lund and Mount agree that betting on El Niño to bring rain and snow is a chump’s game. In fact, says Mount, he and Lund were motivated to make their calculations in part because of all the “media froth” over the prospects for a rainmaking El Niño condition in the Pacific.

“You could actually hear the response of people saying, ‘We’re going to have an El Niño next year, so everything’s going to be fine.”

Not necessarily, says Mount, noting that Central and Northern California lie “at the swing point,” where effects from the legendary oscillation are less predictable than in far Southern California or the Pacific Northwest. As for the Las Vegas metaphor, “Only a fool would make book on the weather,” cautions Mount. “Our predictive capacity for year-to-year weather is very, very low.”


http://blogs.kqed.org/science/2014/06/15/oddsmaking-on-a-fourth-drought-year-for-california/
Re: ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch
June 17, 2014 12:39PM
Do I trust this guy?
Quote
Mount
“Our predictive capacity for year-to-year weather is very, very low.”

How does that 'predictive capacity' work with the predictions regarding man-mad climate change?
avatar Re: ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch
June 17, 2014 07:49PM
Quote
snorkus
Do I trust this guy?
Quote
Mount
“Our predictive capacity for year-to-year weather is very, very low.”
How does that 'predictive capacity' work with the predictions regarding man-mad climate change?

No relationship. The facts of human caused climate change are not based on year-to-year weather predictions. There is a difference between weather and climate.
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