wx

.Long term...Wednesday through saturday...

Confidence is increasing in precipitation during period as models
Have latched on to some tropical moisture from the remnants of a
Tropical system which was over the west pacific around the middle
Of last week. Moisture was spreading eastward across the dateline
To about 150w although it was splintering a bit in response to
Shortwave near 35n/155w. However the deterministic runs of the
Gfs/ecmwf/gem all grab upstream moisture as second shortwave
Rotates through the mean trough position and track it into the
West coast of or-nrn ca by thursday. While models initially point
The main pwat plume just to the northwest of our area, frontal
System and moisture plume will sag southward as wave moves inland.
This will result in a decent chance of mountain snow and lower
Elevation rain as frontal and jet dynamics increase lift. Current
Model projections indicate between 1-2 inches of qpf from the
Tahoe basin northward with the ecmwf stretching this band down
Into mono county. Confidence in these amounts is low at this time
As exact track of shortwave will dictate where heavier
Precipitation falls. So stay tuned.

Bumped pops up and spread them over much of the region thu-thu night
As a result of increasing confidence that at least some moisture in
The form of rain and snow will reach the area. Models are showing a
Secondary shortwave rotating into the area behind main wave,
Fri-sat. So kept a low chance of showers going into at least the
First part of the weekend. Details are very poorly defined with this
Second feature and more time will be needed to assess its impact.
After a mild period wed-thu, temperatures will cool considerably
Fri-sat such that snow levels will be quite a bit lower. Hohmann