Hazardous weather outlook
National weather service san joaquin valley - hanford ca
119 pm pst mon nov 15 2010

Caz089>099-161400-
West central san joaquin valley-east central san joaquin valley-
Southwestern san joaquin valley-southeastern san joaquin valley-
Mariposa madera and fresno county foothills-
Tulare county foothills-kern county mountains-
Sierra nevada from yosemite to kings canyon-
Tulare county mountains-indian wells valley-
Southeastern kern county desert-
119 pm pst mon nov 15 2010

...Large changes to take place this travel weekend...

This hazardous weather outlook is for all of interior central
California.

.Day one...This afternoon and tonight

Hazardous weather is not expected.

.Days two through seven...Tuesday through sunday

A pacific storm is forecast to develop late wednesday and
Into thursday off of the pacific northwest coast. This system will
Gradually move south along the west coast...Reaching northern
California sunday.

A cold front ahead of the main low pressure area will swing
Through central california saturday. Periods of rain and mountain
Snow are expected to begin over northern portions of central
California mid day friday...Then spread south over the rest of the
Region friday night.

A brief break in the precipitation may occur sometime
Saturday...But it will increase again late saturday or early
Sunday ahead of the main low pressure area.

While it is still too early to say how much rain and snow will
Occur with this system...Significant amounts will be possible over
The 3 day period from late friday through monday.

Temperatures will drop sharply friday then remain below normal
Through the weekend. This will be the coldest system of the
Season thus far over central california. Present indications are
For the snow level to drop to 3500 to 4500 feet saturday...Then
Remain near 3500 feet sunday into monday.

This could cause some problems for early holiday travelers over
Mountain passes. If you have travel plans this coming weekend you
Should begin to monitor the latest forecasts for this developing
Winter weather system.

.Spotter information statement...

Skywarn spotter activation is not needed at this time.

Weather spotters are encouraged to report any significant or
Unusual conditions to the national weather service.

$$

Here's the Special Weather Statement from the Reno office.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Special Weather Statement
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
311 PM PST MON NOV 15 2010

CAZ070>073-NVZ001>005-161115-
SURPRISE VALLEY CALIFORNIA-LASSEN-EASTERN PLUMAS-
EASTERN SIERRA COUNTIES-GREATER LAKE TAHOE AREA-MONO-
MINERAL AND SOUTHERN LYON COUNTIES-GREATER RENO-CARSON CITY-
MINDEN AREA-WESTERN NEVADA BASIN AND RANGE INCLUDING PYRAMID LAKE-
NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CEDARVILLE...EAGLEVILLE...
FORT BIDWELL...PORTOLA...SUSANVILLE...WESTWOOD...SIERRAVILLE...
LOYALTON...SOUTH LAKE TAHOE...TAHOE CITY...TRUCKEE...
MARKLEEVILLE...BRIDGEPORT...COLEVILLE...LEE VINING...
MAMMOTH LAKES...HAWTHORNE...YERINGTON...SMITH VALLEY...MINA...
SCHURZ...GLENBROOK...INCLINE VILLAGE...SPARKS...VERDI...
GARDNERVILLE...VIRGINIA CITY...FERNLEY...FALLON...LOVELOCK...
SILVER SPRINGS...NIXON...IMLAY...EMPIRE...GERLACH
311 PM PST MON NOV 15 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL MOVE WEST ALLOWING A
COLD NORTH FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC LATE THIS
WEEK. MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN SHOWING AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL REACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
THURSDAY...THEN SLOWLY DROP OVER THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA
OVER THE WEEKEND.

AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND MAY BECOME STRONG AS THE INITIAL COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
NORTHWEST NEVADA. GUSTS OF 45 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
EASTERN SIERRA AND IN WESTERN NEVADA...RIDGE WINDS SHOULD EXCEED
90 MPH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.

OVER THE WEEKEND...THE MAIN PORTION OF THE STORM SHOULD REACH THE
SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. THERE IS GOOD POTENTIAL SNOW LEVELS
WILL DROP TO ALL VALLEY FLOORS THIS WEEKEND...DUE TO THE COLD
ARCTIC AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE NOT CERTAIN
AS THIS TIME...HOWEVER MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING THIS COULD BE
THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IN THE SIERRA WITH ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN NEVADA VALLEY FLOORS.

Headed up to Yosemite this Saturday and was hoping with the expected dry winter that we'd get an unusually late closing of Tioga and Glacier Point Roads. I know it's just speculation, but do you all think the roads are closed for good? I saw today that they are closed and I imagine the upcoming storm will keep them that way for some time still. If there isn't a whole lot of precipitation in this storm, is there a chance they might open up again late next week? I'm not sure historically what the park's position is on reopening roads. Will they always reopen as long as driving conditions are safe or will they just leave them closed since it's late into the fall already?

I'd bet you won't see GP or Tioga open again after this coming storm.
Maybe someone mentioned it already but the big issue is ice...
esp. with Sierra weather of freeze/thaw every day. Seen it firsthand...
GP road is 99% free of all snow ... but the switchbacks down to
Washburn are a black ice nightmare.... so they just leave it closed.

---

Hazardous weather outlook
National weather service san joaquin valley - hanford ca
254 pm pst tue nov 16 2010

Caz089>099-171400-
West central san joaquin valley-east central san joaquin valley-
Southwestern san joaquin valley-southeastern san joaquin valley-
Mariposa madera and fresno county foothills-
Tulare county foothills-kern county mountains-
Sierra nevada from yosemite to kings canyon-
Tulare county mountains-indian wells valley-
Southeastern kern county desert-
254 pm pst tue nov 16 2010

...Large changes to take place this travel weekend...

This hazardous weather outlook is for all of interior central
California.

.Day one...This afternoon and tonight

Hazardous weather is not expected.

.Days two through seven...Wednesday through monday

A pacific storm is forecast to develop late wednesday and
Into thursday off of the pacific northwest coast. This system will
Push a cold front south across the region early saturday...With
The main area of low pressure reaching central california sunday.
Periods of rain and mountain snow are expected to begin over
Northern portions of central california late friday afternoon and
Spread south over the rest of the region friday night.

A brief break in the precipitation may occur sometime saturday
Morning or afternoon...But it will increase again late saturday
Or early sunday ahead of the main area of low pressure.

While it is still too early to say how much rain and snow will
Occur with this system...Significant amounts will be possible over
The 3 day period from late friday through monday.

Temperatures will drop sharply friday then remain below normal
Through the weekend. This will be the coldest system of the
Season thus far over central california. Present indications are
For the snow level to drop to 3500 near yosemite...To 4500 feet
In the tehachapis saturday...Then remain near those levels sunday
Before lowering again late sunday to near 3500 feet.

This could cause some problems for early holiday travelers. If
You have travel plans this coming weekend you should monitor the
Latest forecasts for this developing winter weather system.

.Spotter information statement...

Skywarn spotter activation will not be needed.

Weather spotters are encouraged to report any significant or
Unusual conditions to the national weather service.

$$

Bingham

Is there any "prevailing wisdom" about the overall outlook for Sierra snowpack this year, heavy or light? El Nino or La Nina?

---

The cure for a fallacious argument is a better argument, not the suppression of ideas.
-- Carl Sagan

We're in a La Niña right now.