Re: First snow of the season?

Medium range progs are indicating a drier onshore flow becoming
Established on saturday...But there remains some timing
Uncertainty of when it will push out the high based moisture. By
Sunday the great basin ridge will be knocked down as a strong
Storm takes aim at the pac nw. This will in turn open the door
For a potentially strong winter storm type system to hit central
Ca by the middle of next week. There are considerable timing
Differences with the models as the gfs brings it into our area
Tuesday night and wednesday while the ecmwf lags the gfs by a day
And brings it into our area beyond the forecast period. Either way
Confidence is improving that our area will have a significant
Precipitation event next week that will bring the first modest
Snowfall of the season to the higher elevations of the southern
Sierra nevada.

This looks poised to ruin my Half Dome hike on 10/6. Major bummer

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kb6ooc
This looks poised to ruin my Half Dome hike on 10/6. Major bummer

It'll probably cancel a trip of mine.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 09/29/2011 12:53PM by eeek.

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eeek

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kb6ooc
This looks poised to ruin my Half Dome hike on 10/6. Major bummer

It'll probably cancel a tip of mine.

My tip for you: Don't eat da yellow snow.

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chick-on

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eeek

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kb6ooc
This looks poised to ruin my Half Dome hike on 10/6. Major bummer

It'll probably cancel a tip of mine.

My tip for you: Don't eat da yellow snow.

I don't eat the pink snow either.

You don't have to cancel your tip. Heck, you can just give us it now.

(you wanna REALLY avoid the brown snow though)

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From the bottom of the current Hanford NWS forecast discussion:

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Hanford NWS
THESE THICKNESS
AND 700-MB TEMPERATURES ARE CONSISTENT WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO
6000-7000 FEET WITH THIS STORM.

Be interesting to see how much is on the ground in the high country by the following weekend, could mess up a trip I had planned as well.

.Long term...Tuesday through friday...Still looking at two systems
To move through during the extended period. Until the 12z ecmwf came
In late during the forecast formulating process...There was good
Agreement on the overall pattern evolution. For now will not give
Much weight to the latest operational ecmwf due to its radical
Change on the second system.

Tuesday will see a deepening trough off the coast with a shortwave
Ejecting out from it that will pass through on tuesday. The day
Before we will have had some drying out in southwest flow...However
There should be enough moisture brought in with the wave to warrant
Keeping in the chance for thunder and showers in mohave county
Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Meanwhile the major trough off shore will continue to deepen and
Advance towards our area. Models have trended to move this system
Further north and delay its arrival. By wednesday afternoon
The sierra and higher elevations in the northwest will be having
Precipitation over them. Winds will be a concern with this system
Late wednesday afternoon and into thursday morning. Progs are
Depicting a 120-140 knot jet rounding the trough bottom then. If
This continues it likely wind warnings or advisories will be need in
San bernardino and inyo counties and possibly in clark. As noted
Previously blowing dust will likely be a hazard in the strongest
Wind areas which is in the grids for wednesday / early thursday for
Western san bernardino county. The trough axis will come through on
Thursday and have the precipitation move with the axis. This will
Have the best chances early thursday for our western areas and then
Shift to the eastern zones thursday afternoon and evening. For now
The system is progged on a more northerly course than previously
Expected and hence the best chance for precipitation will be in the
North...Although the entire area will have shot at getting something
Thursday. Since this system will move in from the northwest moisture
May be limited with this system...So expect rain and snow totals to
Be low. We should see quick clearing on friday as the trough exits
And a cool down in its wake.
&&

I'm in Mammoth and hiked Dusy Basin today and it was brutally windy and cold. The sky right now looks like hell but no rain today. The locals here scoff at any chance of snow next week. I tend to listen to the locals more than generic weather sites, but God only knows!