Re: Next year is going to be another dry one

More dry conditions in the Sierra. Here's link to our blog post that has the NOAA drought map:


https://www.backpackthesierra.com/post/it-s-not-looking-good

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Check our our website: http://www.backpackthesierra.com/
Or just read a good mystery novel set in the Sierra; https://www.amazon.com/Danger-Falling-Rocks-Paul-Wagner/dp/0984884963

If it makes you feel better they also predicted an above normal hurricane season.

Not looking so dry! Nice to have a reminder with all the advances in science, we still have a lot to learn.

Merry Christmas

the prediction you cited is now more than 2 months old. long-range models, usually based on historical data, become iffy when the underlying paradigm is shifting. think global warming (not the same as global drying). let's all hope that the shift starting tonight will linger through a good part of winter.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 12/26/2022 10:25AM by mkbgdns.

For the doubters out there, the conditions exist for a very dry 2023, at least till next Winter. Keep in mind, the exact same was predicted for last year, and we also had a wetter-than-normal November and December. This quickly ended in early 2022 through Summer

Actually the staff at NOAA are predicting changing conditions in January. To be fair to them, they do a great job on their blogs of pointing out how la Nina is a weak predictor of temperature and precipitation and how much uncertainty is involved.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso

Maybe we should have a friendly wager for a pizza deck beer on where we end up this season.

That would be a beer or three I would gladly pay for! Hope they are right!

Also the winter forecast I saw from NOAA in late November predicted a wetter than normal for Northern California, about average precipitation for Central California and lower than normal for Southern California.

In regards to the Sierra, the prediction was more precipitation north of Lake Tahoe, about average precipitation from Lake Tahoe to around Mammoth, and below normal precipitation south of Mammoth.

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