Re: SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
514 AM PST WED FEB 4 2009
...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS COMING TO AN END OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFC OCEAN WILL NEAR THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST THIS EVENING...BRINGING A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER AFTER TODAY.
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP GUSTY SOUTH WINDS BLOWING ALONG
INTERSTATE 5 OVER THE GRAPEVINE AND EXTENDING INTO THE EXTREME SOUTH END OF THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY NEAR THE BASE OF THE GRAPEVINE. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE
PASSES AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE VALLEY BY THIS EVENING. SPEEDS
OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS THROUGH LATER
TONIGHT.
THE WINDS ARE WARMING AS THEY FUNNEL THROUGH TEJON PASS AND DESCEND TO THE VALLEY
FLOOR. THIS WILL RESULT IN NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH END OF THE VALLEY
AGAIN TODAY...WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT INTERIOR CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA.
THE INITIAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...SPREADING RAIN
AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH SNOW LEVELS REMAINING RELATIVELY HIGH INITIALLY. A SECONDARY SOMEWHAT
COLDER SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...LOWERING SNOW LEVELS TO ABOUT 5000 FEET. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS
AROUND 12 TO 18 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA NEVADA BEFORE PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF SATURDAY AS
THE SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS...BUT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE PASS
LEVELS.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME
MORE UNSTABLE. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE VALLEY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE.
THE COOLER AIR AND CLOUDS AND RAIN ACCOMPANYING THE SYSTEMS WILL RETURN SEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION BEGINNING
THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL PASSING DISTURBANCES SHOULD MAINTAIN THE RELATIVELY COOL AND
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR FAVORITE NEWS SOURCE...FOR UPDATES ON THIS
SITUATION

Winter Storm Watch
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
454 AM PST THU FEB 5 2009
.HEAVY SNOWFALL POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE PARK TO THE KERN COUNTY LINE...
A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE PARK TO THE KERN COUNTY LINE.
THE SECOND OF TWO STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR FRIDAY. THE
SNOW LEVEL WILL LOWER TO 5500 TO 6000 FEET
LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...THEN LINGER NEAR 5500 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT. TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 18 TO 24 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ABOVE 7000 FEET LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. LESSER AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR BELOW 7000 FEET...AND DEPENDING ON WHEN THE
CHANGEOVER
FROM RAIN TO SNOW OCCURS COULD BE NEAR A FOOT AT AS LOW AS 6000 FEET.
A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR UPDATES ON THIS WINTER WEATHER.
Yosemite: TODAY...RAIN AND SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDY...COLDER. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP
TO 4 INCHES. HIGHS 47 TO 54 IN YOSEMITE
VALLEY...30 TO 40 IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 5 INCHES. LOWS 30 TO 40 IN
YOSEMITE VALLEY...20 TO 30 IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY.
.FRIDAY...RAIN AND SNOW...WINDY. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 11 INCHES. HIGHS 41 TO 50 IN
YOSEMITE VALLEY...22 TO 32 IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...SNOW IN THE EVENING...THEN SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. COLDER. UP TO 4
INCHES. LOWS 27 TO 37 IN YOSEMITE VALLEY...
14 TO 24 IN THE HIGH COUNTRY.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS 42
TO 52 IN YOSEMITE VALLEY...23 TO 33 IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY.

Winter Storm Warning
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
442 AM PST FRI FEB 6 2009
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA NEVADA NORTH OF KERN COUNTY...
A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA NEVADA...FROM YOSEMITE PARK TO THE KERN COUNTY LINE.
THE SECOND IN A SERIES OF STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR TODAY
AND LINGER THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THE
SNOW LEVEL...CURRENTLY NEAR 4500 FEET THIS MORNING...SHOULD RISE TO 5500 TO 6000 FEET FOR A
WHILE TODAY...THEN LOWER BACK TO 5000
FEET TONIGHT.
SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES TODAY AND TONIGHT AT AND ABOVE 7000 FEET...WITH
ACCUMULATIONS OF 18 TO 24 INCHES LIKELY. LESSER AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR BELOW 7000 FEET
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT SNOW LEVEL...BUT AROUND ONE FOOT IS POSSIBLE AT 6000 FEET. THE
SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED OR
OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL
MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.
Yosemite: TODAY...RAIN AND SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 9 INCHES. HIGHS 39 TO 49 IN
YOSEMITE VALLEY...22 TO 32 IN THE HIGH COUNTRY.
.TONIGHT...SNOW...COLDER. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 5 INCHES. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION
UP TO 16 INCHES. LOWS 19 TO 29 IN YOSEMITE
VALLEY...15 TO 23 IN THE HIGH COUNTRY.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. BREEZY.
HIGHS 38 TO 47 IN YOSEMITE VALLEY...22 TO 32 IN
THE HIGH COUNTRY.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
BREEZY. SNOW LEVEL 6000 FEET. LOWS 27 TO 37 IN
YOSEMITE VALLEY... 14 TO 24 IN THE HIGH COUNTRY.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS
41 TO 47 IN YOSEMITE VALLEY...27 TO 37 IN THE
HIGH COUNTRY.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY...BREEZY. SNOW LIKELY. LOWS 27 TO 37 IN YOSEMITE VALLEY...16 TO 26 IN
THE HIGH COUNTRY.
.MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS
33 TO 43 IN YOSEMITE VALLEY... 21 TO 31 IN
THE HIGH COUNTRY. LOWS 26 TO 36 IN YOSEMITE VALLEY... 14 TO 24 IN THE HIGH COUNTRY.

I really hope the weekend of Feb. 20 is sunny with Horsetail Fall flowing nicely at sunset.

It looks like Tioga really got dumped on this time.

Any inches/feet snow measurements from this storm, yet?

B

I don't know how much Yosemite got but on the south shore of Tahoe we didn't even manage half an inch.

Louis wrote:

> I don't know how much Yosemite got but on the south shore of
> Tahoe we didn't even manage half an inch.

It was better in the south.

http://cdec.water.ca.gov/snow/current/snow/pillowplots/TuolumneMerced.html

Looks like more is on the way.

Its raining, its pouring....!!!

The rain is coming down in bucketfulls in the foothills

B

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
311 AM PST MON FEB 9 2009
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN SIERRA TONIGHT. THE SNOW
LEVEL IS BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 FEET. SNOW WILL
TAPER TO SHOWERS THIS MORNING. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE TODAY IN SNOW
SQUALLS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES.
BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED
VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

Another one is due in Tuesday night.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
355 AM PST TUE FEB 10 2009
...MORE WINTRY WEATHER ON THE WAY FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF INLAND CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA...
ANOTHER WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE SIERRA NEVADA AND TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MODERATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. AT
THIS TIME SNOWFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES APPEARS LIKELY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 4000 FEET. THE
HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK AREA...WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS FURTHER SOUTH. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DOWN TO ABOUT 2000
FEET WITH THIS STORM...WHICH WOULD IMPACT THE FOOTHILL COMMUNITIES OF MARIPOSA...
COARSEGOLD AND AUBERRY.
IN ADDITION TO THE SNOWFALL...STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS...
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SIERRA CREST. STRONG WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST TO AROUND 50 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER...STRONGER AND COLDER...STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN ALL MOUNTAIN
AND FOOTHILL AREAS. THE WEEKEND STORM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE MAJOR TRAVEL
AND COMMERCE DISRUPTIONS TO INLAND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. STAY TUNED FOR LATER UPDATES
ON THE WEEKEND WEATHER SITUATION.

>>ANOTHER...STRONGER AND COLDER...STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN ALL MOUNTAIN
AND FOOTHILL AREAS. THE WEEKEND STORM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE MAJOR TRAVEL
AND COMMERCE DISRUPTIONS<<


There goes my ski trip...sigh (I know I KNOW: we need the pac, but but but...!)

B

>There goes my ski trip...sigh (I know I KNOW: we need the pac, but but but...!)

Yes, we really do need the snow. I'll tell the weather spirits you were only kidding. :-)



Post Edited (02-10-09 18:03)

Radar is already showing snow at Tahoe.

Its c-c-COLD -- the snow levels are probably going to be low

B

This current cycle of storms, hopefully combining with a bit of warm weather a week from Friday, could make for a really spectacular Firefall! Let's hope!

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
522 AM PST WED FEB 11 2009
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM PST THURSDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE NATIONAL
PARK TO KINGS CANYON...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FROM
YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK TO KINGS CANYON UNTIL 4 AM PST THURSDAY.
ANOTHER WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM IS BRINGING MORE SNOW TO THE SIERRA NEVADA WITH SNOW
LEVELS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 3000 FEET THROUGH TONIGHT. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WILL
ACCUMULATE ABOVE 3000 FEET...WITH TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 15 INCHES LIKELY
ABOVE 5000 FEET BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES.
BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED
VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

FXUS66 KHNX 121025
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
225 AM PST THU FEB 12 2009

.DISCUSSION...BAND OF HEAVY RAIN...SNOW AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST AND BASED ON CURRENT
SPEED, IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE.
CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXPIRES AT 400 AM AND THIS SHOULD
WORK OUT JUST FINE. OTHER THAN SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE
PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING ALONG THE GRAPEVINE AND SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY FACING SLOPES OF THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS IT SHOULD BE A
DAY TO DRY OUT. THE DRYING WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS YET THE NEXT IN
THE EVERY OTHER DAY "PARADE OF STORMS" IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND AFFECT THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE SIERRA LOOKS ON TRACK. SNOW
LEVELS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RATHER LOW AND THE FOOTHILLS AND
THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS MAY NEED A WATCH IF THE MORNING DATA
SUGGESTS A HIGH ENOUGH AMOUNT OF EXPECTED SNOW. CURRENT SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT ADDRESSES THIS CONCERN. SATURDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE THE NEXT DRY PERIOD THEN ON SUNDAY
MODELS PROJECT A VERY WET AND LINGERING SYSTEM WHICH IF THE PROGS
ARE CORRECT WILL NOT EXIT THE AREA UNTIL LATER ON MONDAY. THIS
WILL BE A BIG PLUS FOR THE SNOW PACK AND WATER SITUATION OVER THE
AREA. ALL IN ALL I HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE
"WET" PERIODS OF THE FORECAST INTO TUESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THE
PATTERN FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. THE GFS REMAINS PROGRESSIVE AND WET
WHILE THE ECMWF DOES NOT BRING IN A THURSDAY SYSTEM, RATHER IT
STALLS THE FRONT OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND BUILDS A RIDGE OVER
THE WEST COAST WHILE KEEPING CENTRAL CALIFORNIA DRY. CURRENT
FORECAST AGREES WITH THE GFS WETTER SOLUTION AND I WILL LEAVE IT
ALONE AT THIS TIME. ENJOY THE RAIN AND SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION IN
THE SIERRA NEVADA AND TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.


&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
CAZ096-097.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
CAZ096.

&&




PUBLIC...DUDLEY
AVN/FW...DCH

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
705 AM PST THU FEB 12 2009
...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
THE SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE TO THE KERN COUNTY LINE...
A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FROM YOSEMITE TO THE KERN COUNTY LINE.
A COLD STORM ORIGINATING IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF
10 TO 20 INCHES ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 2 FEET OR MORE OVER THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE LATEST FORECASTS.
Yosemite: TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS 37 TO 44 IN
YOSEMITE VALLEY...20 TO 30 IN THE HIGH COUNTRY.
.TONIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS 13 TO 23 IN YOSEMITE VALLEY...1
TO 11 IN THE HIGH COUNTRY.
.FRIDAY...SNOW...WINDY. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 12 INCHES. HIGHS 27 TO 37 IN YOSEMITE
VALLEY...13 TO 23 IN THE HIGH COUNTRY.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...SNOW...BREEZY. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 8 INCHES. LOWS 19 TO 29 IN
YOSEMITE VALLEY...8 TO 18 IN THE HIGH COUNTRY.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. BREEZY. NOT AS COLD. HIGHS
34 TO 44 IN YOSEMITE VALLEY...19 TO 29 IN THE
HIGH COUNTRY.

Winter Storm Warning
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
520 AM PST FRI FEB 13 2009
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE SIERRA
NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE TO THE KERN COUNTY
LINE...
SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE SIERRA THIS MORNING AND IT WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES. THIS
AFTERNOON THE SNOW WILL BECOME SHOWERY AND HEAVY SNOW BURSTS ARE POSSIBLE. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM...AND LOCAL AREAS COULD
RECEIVE UP TO 15 INCHES OF SNOW BY LATE AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WELL
INTO THE EVENING AND ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED OR
OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL
MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

Word is the storm coming in tomorrow is bigger than the previous ones.

Louis wrote:

> Word is the storm coming in tomorrow is bigger than the
> previous ones.

I've been hearing "biggest of the season so far".

Here's what I like. Sunny skies predicted for next weekend. Friday: Sunny, high near 50. Can you say Firefall?

Maybe:

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY)...
CURRENT SAT IMAGES SHOW A STRONG STORM SYSTEM OVER WEST ALASKA THAT
SHOULD SWING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. CURRENT PROJECTIONS KEEP THIS
SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH...BUT THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE
LARGE VARIATIONS IN MODEL TO MODEL RUNS. IF THIS SYSTEMS STAYS
OFFSHORE AND TO THE NORTH AS CURRENTLY ADVERTISED...WE WOULD
ACTUALLY BE IN STORE FOR SOME WARMING AND LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW. IF
IT GETS CLOSER...TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER AND RAIN CHANCES HIGHER.
CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS THINGS DRY WITH SOME WARMING...BUT IS FAIRLY
CONSERVATIVE. WILL JUST WAIT AND SEE WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS
SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY WITH MOST OF THE FOCUS ON THE SUN/MON STORM.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

FXUS66 KHNX 142302
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
302 PM PST SAT FEB 14 2009

.DISCUSSION...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FA TODAY WILL CONTINUE AS A SHORT
WAVE RIDGING IS BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED OVER THE AREA AS UPSTREAM
STORM BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED AND IS CURRENTLY EVOLVING THROUGH
INITIAL CYCLOGENESIS. TRIPLE POINT LOW IS BEGINNING TO TAKE OVER AS
STRONG BAROCLINIC LEAF FEATURE EXTENDS FROM TRIPLE POINT LOW NEAR
41N AND 126W TO THE SW ALONG A LINE TO 30N 135W. PARENT LOW NEAR
40N AND 131W IS REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY ATTM. THE MODELS ARE
HAVING SOME TROUBLE WITH THIS FEATURE AND HOW MANY CYCLOGENESIS
EVOLUTIONS IT GOES THROUGH BEFORE THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY MOVES TO
THE COAST.

THE NAM12 APPEARS TO HAVE BEST HANDEL [sic] ON IT AT THIS TIME AND
PROCEEDS TO KEEP THE STRONG COLD FRONT OFFSHORE UNTIL MONDAY. THIS
IS A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...HOWEVER THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN TRENDING IN THIS DIRECTION. WE HAVE SEEN THIS TYPE OF
SYSTEM IN THE PAST...DROPPING DUE SOUTH ON THE HEELS OF AN EXITING
SYSTEM AND CUTS OFF AND EVOLVES AND EVEN WEAKENS BEFORE IS
PROGRESSES INLAND. THE PRIMARY INHIBITING FACTOR IS THE RIDGING
THAT QUICKLY BUILDS IN OVER THE WEST AS THE SYSTEM DIVES SOUTH. IN
A NORMAL NW TO SE TRAJECTORY...THE SYSTEM WOULD MOVE RIGHT ONSHORE
WITH LITTLE OR NO SHORT WAVE RIDGING. HOWEVER SINCE THE WAVELENGTH
OF THIS FEATURE WAS SO SHORT...IT GOT CAUGHT UP IN A 120 KT JET
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM AND DROPPED DUE SOUTH.

IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS OR SO WE WILL SEE THE FRONT FLIRT
WITH THE COAST AND KEEP THE CENTRAL INTERIOR OF CALIFORNIA HIGH AND
DRY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING UPSTREAM RIDGE.
THE QUESTIONS IS...WHEN WILL THE FRONT MOVE INLAND? WITH THE
PARENT LOW REMAINING STATIONARY THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z SUNDAY...THE
NAM IS KEYING IN ON A JET MAX ACCELERATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH AND DEVELOPING A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT BY 06Z SUNDAY. THE
NAM IS DEPICTING THIS FEATURE QUITE WELL AND IS LIFTING IT WELL
NORTH OF OUR AREA INTO NRN CA BY 12Z SUNDAY....WITH PARENT LOW
STILL CAMPED OUT NEAR 40N AND 131W. A SECONDARY SURGE ASSOCIATED
WITH ANOTHER JET MAX AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
PUSH THE FRONT INLAND INTO MTR BY MONDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL
MORE THAN LIKELY GET HUNG UP ALONG THE WEST SIDE MOUNTAINS EARLY
MONDAY MORNING UNTIL THE SECONDARY SURGE/TROUGH CATCHES UP THE
INITIAL BAROCLINIC ZONE AND PUSHES IT INTO THE CENTRAL CA
INTERIOR BY MIDDAY MONDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT
NEAR PT CONCEPTION BY 18Z MONDAY.

THE PRECIP WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS THE TEHACHAPIS EARLY MONDAY AND
SPREAD FROM SW TO NE THROUGH THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE
SIERRA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND PRECIP WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND WELL INTO TUESDAY AS THE PARENT LOW WILL NOT MOVE ONSHORE
UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP MOISTURE
FEED AND THE SNOW MACHINE ACTIVE ACROSS THE SIERRA INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. STORM WILL FINALLY OPEN UP AND DISSIPATE BY WED AS UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD IN AND CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY AND EVEN INTO
SAT. THE ECMWF AND GFS IS ATTEMPTING TO BRING IN ANOTHER STORM BY
SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE REMAINS MODERATE IN THE SHORT
TERM AND LOW IN THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD
PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA BY 00Z MONDAY. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS DUE
TO CIGS AND VSBYS IN RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
NORTH OF MADERA COUNTY FROM 12Z SUNDAY TO 00Z MONDAY WITH MVFR AND
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CIGS AND VSBYS OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA
NORTH OF KINGS CANYON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REST
OF THE AREA THROUGH 00Z MONDAY.


&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR CAZ095>097.

&&




PUBLIC...JDB
AVN/FW...MENDENHALL

Wait and See: Eyewitness weather. I will get to the point where I quit micro examining the weather until the day before I leave for Yosemite, otherwise it can make a person crazy.

B

> it can make a person crazy.

Too late for moi!

Yesterday (Feb. 13) on the road to Midpines...

I left the Valley early, as it was beginning to snow, and I'd just taken off my chains the day before. Watching the snow blow across the road, I knew I was in trouble, but made it past El Cap and out 140. By the kiosk I was smiling at the rain, with the chains still sitting in the box.

Rounded the turn on 140 to head up to Midpines, and it suddenly turned to snow (couldn't be much over 2000') and as I headed up the hill it became obvious the chains were going back on.

But at least I only had to do it once, instead of taking them off as I got out of the valley, then putting them back near Midpines. There was heavy snow all the way to and through Mariposa, and 140 out was closed for a spell as they got rid of 6 cars who didn't have chains and were blocking the highway. Even saw a UPS truck sideways in the road. The road didn't clear from snow until nearly 2000' on the way toward Merced.


Take your chains, and go through the whole process of putting them on before you leave home. Nothing worse than having to figure out how to put them on while you're sitting in a foot of snow trying to figure out which end goes where as your hands slowly freeze...! There are often people there who will do it for you for $20-30, but not always.

It was all worth it...the Valley was beautiful to wake up in on the 12th with fresh snow everywhere...pix coming as soon as I get to it.

---

Gary
Yosemite Photo Galleries: http://www.pbase.com/roberthouse/yo

Gary: SWEET!

What, no nevada plates to look at? LOL

Vince wrote:

>
> What, no nevada plates to look at? LOL

They were probably smart enough to stay in the valley and enjoy it 8^).

---

Gary
Yosemite Photo Galleries: http://www.pbase.com/roberthouse/yo

Winter Storm Warning
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
1040 AM PST SUN FEB 15 2009

CAZ095>097-160300-
/O.CON.KHNX.WS.W.0004.090216T1200Z-090217T1800Z/
KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE TO KINGS CANYON-
TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
1040 AM PST SUN FEB 15 2009

...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW AND HIGH WINDS REMAINS IN
EFFECT FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 10 AM PST TUESDAY FOR THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW AND HIGH WINDS REMAINS IN
EFFECT FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 10 AM PST TUESDAY FOR THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE NATIONAL
PARK TO THE KERN COUNTY LINE.

A STRONG PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO AND ACROSS THE
SIERRA NEVADA AND KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AND MONDAY
BRINGING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY SNOW AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE
5000 FEET. SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
SIERRA ABOVE 5000 FEET.

OVER THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS...THE FRAZIER PARK...CUDDY VALLEY
AND PINE MOUNTAIN CLUB VICINITIES COULD RECEIVE 1 TO 2 FEET OF
SNOW BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW FALLING
ON MONDAY. ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6000 FEET ARE LIKELY TO RECEIVE THE
HEAVIEST ACCUMULATION. IN THE REMAINDER OF THE KERN MOUNTAINS
LIGHTER SNOW FALL AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY HOWEVER SOUTH FACING SLOPES
ABOVE 5500 FEET COULD PICK UP OVER ONE FOOT OF NEW SNOW.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL
MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

$$

BSO

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD

Heavy snow at Tahoe now.

Great news. the reservoirs sure do need it...

Winter Storm Warning
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
350 AM PST TUE FEB 17 2009
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA NEVADA AND TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS...
A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM
PST THIS MORNING FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA AND THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS.
IN THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA... HEAVY SNOW IS LIKELY AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 4500 FEET...
WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 FEET LIKELY THROUGH THIS MORNING. GUSTY
WINDS OVER RIDGES WILL CAUSE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AS WELL.
IN THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS...THE FRAZIER PARK...CUDDY VALLEY AND PINE MOUNTAIN CLUB
AREAS COULD RECEIVE AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. THIS WOULD
ALSO INCLUDE INTERSTATE 5 AT TEJON PASS. ELSEWHERE IN THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS...
AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE LOCALIZED BUT COULD STILL BE SEVERAL INCHES. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL
BE AROUND 3500 FEET THIS MORNING...WELL BELOW THE PASS LEVEL FOR BOTH INTERSTATE 5 OVER
THE GRAPEVINE AND HIGHWAY 58 THROUGH TEHACHAPI PASS. PEOPLE PLANNING TRAVEL BETWEEN
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SHOULD CHECK ROAD CONDITIONS BEFORE
DEPARTING...AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE DELAYS AND ROAD CLOSURES. ROAD CONDITIONS
ARE AVAILABLE FROM CALTRANS AT 1-800-427-7623.
IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR OVER RIDGES AND THROUGH WIND
FAVORED PASSES CREATING AREAS OF BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW.
A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED OR
OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL
MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.
STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR FAVORITE NEWS SOURCE...FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION ON THIS WINTER WEATHER EVENT

FXUS66 KHNX 192240
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
240 PM PST THU FEB 19 2009

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY. NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE. LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY IS
EXPECTED. WINDS ACROSS THE GRAPEVINE WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS
EVENING AS GRADIENTS RELAX.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE
UPCOMING SYSTEM. HAVE BACKED OFF THE POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
INCREASED THEM FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO HAVE A SUBTROPICAL TAP AND WILL BE A WARM ONE. SNOW LEVELS
APPEAR TO BE ABOVE 5000 FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT AT THIS TIME.

IF A TROPICAL FEED BECOMES INVOLVED WE COULD SEE SIGNIFICANT SNOW
MELT IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS MAY IMPOSE A
FLOODING THREAT AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW CONCERNING THE TROPICAL FEED AND EXACT TIMING OT HE WEEKEND
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA
INTERIOR THRU 00Z SATURDAY...EXCEPT LOCAL IFR IN FOG IN THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z FRIDAY.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&




PUBLIC...JDB
AVN/FW...BEAN

There's a weather advisory for northern California calling for heavy rain with snow above 8,000 ft. Mainly Sunday and Monday. Don't know if it'll get far enough south to affect Yosemite.

Looks like it will.

FXUS66 KHNX 212242
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
242 PM PST SAT FEB 21 2009

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 40N 140W WILL
CONTINUE TO EJECT SHORTWAVE IMPULSES INTO CALIFORNIA TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. THE UPPER JET MOVING INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA HAS
BROUGHT EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE CWFA TODAY. THE
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AND
PRECIPITATION MOVES CLOSER. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR
TONIGHT...IT WILL TAKE A WHILE TO MOISTEN UP THE LOWER LEVELS...SO
RAIN LIKELY WILL NOT START UNTIL LATE TONIGHT AND AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT IN CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AS THE FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LOW
AND WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS A
WARMER STORM...WITH SNOW LEVELS ABOVE 7000 FEET. AS MUCH AS 2 FEET
OF SNOW WILL FALL IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
ABOUT NOON MONDAY. THUS HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE
SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE TO KINGS CANYON. FARTHER SOUTH LESSER
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED AND SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 8000
FEET.

THE PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH JUST SOME
RESIDUAL SHOWERS TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST
AND WE GET WEAK RIDGING OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.

AFTER TUESDAY...MODELS HAVE QUITE VARIED SOLUTIONS. THEY AGREE
THAT THERE WILL BE AN UPPER LOW IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC...BUT
DISAGREE ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF PASSING SHORTWAVES IN QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW INTO CALIFORNIA. WILL SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY...HAVE KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMO.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY. A CHANCE OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL
EXIST AFTER 06Z SUNDAY OVER AREAS NORTH OF KERN COUNTY...WITH AREAS
MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES. PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY
TOWARD 18Z SUNDAY WITH WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE BEYOND 00Z MONDAY.


&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 12 PM PST MONDAY FOR
CAZ096.

&&




PUBLIC...BEAN
AVN/FW...SANGER

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD