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Fxus66 khnx 161845
Afdhnx
Area forecast discussion
National weather service san joaquin valley - hanford ca
1045 am pst wed feb 16 2011
.Synopsis...
The first frontal band is moving through california at this time.
Some clearing behind the front may produce isolated thunderstorms
During the afternoon hours. Heavy snow to continue over the higher
Elevations of the sierra nevada through today. Additional systems
Are still forecast to impact the region through at least saturday.
&&
.Discussion...
At 18z /1000 pst/...The cold front was moving through bakersfield.
Behind the frontal cloud band...Satellite loops show clearing skies
Over merced...Western fresno and extreme western madera counties.
This clearing will allow some solar heating of the west side of the
San joaquin valley...With scattered instability showers and possibly
A thunderstorm or two.
12z nam-12 convective parameters over the hanford warning/forecast
Area are not overly impressive for this afternoon. Surface-computed
Capes reach 300 joules/kg over northern merced county...But surface-
Computed lifted indices remain positive...So do not expect any severe
Weather.
Satellite loops indicate that the storm is not digging as far south
As the models had forecast. Snow levels this morning were mostly
Above 5000 feet...Except where convective snow showers depressed the
Snow levels. With the storm tracking more northerly...The winter
Storm warning for the southern sierra nevada and the winter weather
Advisories for the southern sierra nevada foothills and the kern
County mountains may only marginally verify.
The wind advisory for the west side of the san joaquin valley
Verified in a few locations. For the kern county deserts...Winds
Will not pick up until the front arrives this afternoon.
Do not plan any updates at this time.
&&
.Prev discussion... /issued at 219 am pst wed feb 16 2011/
Radar shows the leading edge of the rain and snow now pushing
Southeast across merced county and into the sierra. This southeast
Push will continue through the night with much of the area
Receiving rain or snow by mid morning. Current gridded forecast
Has this trend handled well. Latest data shows wind advisory level
Winds in the kern county desert today and will convert the high
Wind watch to a wind advisory in zones 98-99. Latest model qpf
Indicates a healthy 2 to 3 inches of water equivalent in the
Sierra which easily translates into 2 to 3 feet of snow through
Tonight. This is covered nicely by the current winter storm
Warning. In the san joaquin valley, this first system is projected
To bring around .50" at fresno and around .25" in bakersfield. As
The first impulse moves east of the area late tonight the lower
Elevations will likely see a break in the precipitation on
Thursday however in the mountains the flow will remain moist and
Unstable and additional snow showers will continue. On thursday
Night and friday the next round of widespread precipitation is
Progged to reach the northern parts of the forecast area with kern
County getting the most rain and mountain snow friday night and
Especially saturday. The thursday night through saturday system
Will likely be as strong and maybe even stronger than today`s
Event thus additional winter storm watches will likely be needed
Later today. I have upped the chances of precipitation for this
Feature as the timing is getting more certain.
Sunday and monday look mainly dry however another cold low
Pressure system if progged to arrive tuesday or wednesday
As the gfs and ecmwf models disagree on timing. All in all lots of
Winter weather for the next week.
&&
.Aviation...
Ifr conditions will continue in the southern sierra nevada until
18z thursday with precipitation and mountain obscurations. Mvfr
Ceilings can be expected in the sierra foothills and along the
North and west facing slopes of the tehachapi mountains through
18z thursday with local ifr in precipitation. Additionally...
Winds of 35 knots or greater will occur below the mountain passes
Of kern county until about 06z thursday. Vfr conditions will prevail
Elsewhere across the central california interior through 18z
Thursday.
&&
.Air quality issues...
None.
&&
.Hnx watches/warnings/advisories...
Winter storm warning until 4 am pst thursday for the southern
Sierra nevada from yosemite national park to the kern county line
/caz096-097/.
Winter weather advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 7 am pst
Thursday for the kern county mountains /caz095/.
Winter weather advisory until 4 am pst thursday for the southern
Sierra nevada foothills /caz093-094/.
Wind advisory until 7 pm pst this evening for the west side of
The san joaquin valley /caz089-091/.
Wind advisory until 10 pm pst this evening for the kern county
Deserts /caz098-099/.
&&
$$
Public...Sanger
Avn/fw...Durfee
Synopsis...Wp
Previous discussion...Dudley