Re: Hazardous weather outlook

Hazardous weather outlook
National weather service san joaquin valley - hanford ca
409 am pst sat feb 22 2014

Caz096-097-231215-
Sierra nevada from yosemite to kings canyon-
Tulare county mountains-
409 am pst sat feb 22 2014

This hazardous weather outlook is for the higher elevations of
The southern sierra nevada.

...Winter weather...

.Day one...Today and tonight

No hazardous weather expected.

.Days two through seven...Sunday through friday

* timing: first system will move through wednesday and wednesday
Night. The second and stronger system will move through friday
And friday night.

* snow accumulations: 1 to 3 feet

* elevation: above 7000 feet

* winds: gusts to 60 mph along the crest

* locations include: southern sierra nevada from kern county line
To yosemite national park.

* impacts: snow and blowing snow will create hazardous conditions
For anyone in the mountains above 7000 feet.

* stay tuned to noaa weather radio...Or your favorite news
Source...For further information.


.Spotter information statement...

Skywarn spotter activation is not anticipated.

Weather spotters are encouraged to report any significant or
Unusual conditions to the national weather service.

$$

Longer range models have been very consistent in their
Introduction of a weather system toward the middle of this coming
Week. While models have shown their normal variance in the timing
Of the next storm...They continue to center its introduction
Toward mid-week. Therefore...Will maintain the mention of rain and
Snow starting wednesday morning...With likely potential for
Precipitation later in the day...Especially over the mountains.
Models place the better pva dynamics over the region toward later
In the day on wednesday...Therefore...It will be at this time that
The bulk of the precip will occur. It is at that time that the gfs
Shows a plume of higher value precip-water over the area. As the
One inch plus of water shifts through the area...The better
Dynamics will allow for improved precip efficiencies. Therefore...
Could see high values of rain and possible snow during the
Duration of the storm.

Yet...The first storm will exit the region by thursday. Models
Show a short wave ridge traversing the region ahead of another
Storm ready to hit central california. Models show this to be a
Deeper...Stronger...Storm. While the first storm had the central
California interior along the side of the higher precip-water
Values...The second storm has the higher precip-water values
Aiming for the district. Therefore...While the first storm will
Give the area a brief downpour...The second storm may introduce
Even higher precip accumulation values. Yet...Confidence continues
To increase with each storm as good rain/snow producers and will
Therefore...Will advertise these storms as significant events. In
Addition...Models also show an increasingly unstable atmosphere
Toward the end of next week. Therefore...Will introduce a mention of
Thunderstorms over the san joaquin valley...North of kern county...
For both friday and saturday.

This will put a damper on the early trout opener in the Lone Pine/Independence area next weekend, but hopefully will extend the trout season into the summer in the mountain streams. Rain baby rain (Snow baby snow!) Was looking at our local forecast here in Thousand Oaks and it shows something I haven't seen in years: a 100% chance of rain, this coming Friday. 100% !!

I did not see that on the LA forecast. One can only hope we get some more rain.

I'll be in the Valley this Thur. - Sun. for the ROLFF and camping in Upper Pines. I'm actually looking forward to some inclement weather!

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parklover
I did not see that on the LA forecast. One can only hope we get some more rain.

Click on Fri. the 28th...Hope it doesn't change.

http://www.intellicast.com/Local/Weather.aspx?location=USCA0638

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mtn man

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parklover
I did not see that on the LA forecast. One can only hope we get some more rain.

Click on Fri. the 28th...Hope it doesn't change.

http://www.intellicast.com/Local/Weather.aspx?location=USCA0638

I also hope it does not change and it is more than the sprinkles that we have been getting.

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parklover

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mtn man

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parklover
I did not see that on the LA forecast. One can only hope we get some more rain.

Click on Fri. the 28th...Hope it doesn't change.

http://www.intellicast.com/Local/Weather.aspx?location=USCA0638

I also hope it does not change and it is more than the sprinkles that we have been getting.

There will be a significant pattern change through the long term
Forecast. Yesterday at this time...The models were indicating a
Quick moving system with mainly nw flow at 850 mb to bring some
Enhanced rain totals to the central coast...And very little
Southward. However...The latest gfs 00z run now rotates a negative
Tilted trough towards the central coast. Although this will still be
A quick moving system...There will be enough diffluence and better
Sw flow at 850mb to bring better rainfall totals to the region. Rain
Should start late wednesday across slo county...Then work down the
Forecast area into la county by wednesday eve. Would not be
Surprised if la/vtu/sba counties had some early morning drizzle or
Light rain as the warm sector of the front pushes in a deeper moist
Layer ahead of the approaching front. Rain totals will vary from
Around 1/2 inch in the north to less than a quarter of an inch in
Most areas to the south. However...There could be locally higher
Amounts across the santa ynez range and san gabriel mountains...But
Nothing to write home about. There will be some lingering low level
Moisture on thursday...Mainly around the mountains and foothills so
A few showers will be possible on thursday.

By friday...Two cutoff lows will combine into one just off the
California coast. Once again like the previous storm...This will
Have a negative tilt orientation which will cause a diffluent area
Over the region to help enhance rainfall rates. This will be a very
Dynamic storm with a 995 mb surface low to bring strong southerly
Flow ahead of the front...Precipitable waters over 1.2"...Good low
Level helicity/shear...And a 120 kt sw jet streak moving
Across/la/vtu counties. If models stay on track...You can expect
Periods of heavy rain...Especially across south facing foothill and
Mountain slopes including the san gabriel mountains and santa ynez
Range. There could be some waterspouts or weak tornadoes over
Coastal areas on fri into saturday. Still looking at 1-2 inches for
The coast and valleys...And 2-4 inches for foothills and mountain
Areas...With local amounts to 6 inches across the favored southern
Slopes.

Recent burn areas will have to be monitored for the potential of
Debris flows...Including the colby burn area in glendora and the
Springs burn area around in the camarillo areas.

Snow levels should be above 6000 ft on friday...Then lower to 5500
Ft by saturday. Expect plenty of snow at the higher elevations with
This system. Temperatures overall will remain below normal for this
Time of year. As the next rain events get closer...There will be
Additional and more detailed information disseminated.

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eeek

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parklover

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mtn man

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parklover
I did not see that on the LA forecast. One can only hope we get some more rain.

Click on Fri. the 28th...Hope it doesn't change.

http://www.intellicast.com/Local/Weather.aspx?location=USCA0638

I also hope it does not change and it is more than the sprinkles that we have been getting.

There will be a significant pattern change through the long term
Forecast. Yesterday at this time...The models were indicating a
Quick moving system with mainly nw flow at 850 mb to bring some
Enhanced rain totals to the central coast...And very little
Southward. However...The latest gfs 00z run now rotates a negative
Tilted trough towards the central coast. Although this will still be
A quick moving system...There will be enough diffluence and better
Sw flow at 850mb to bring better rainfall totals to the region. Rain
Should start late wednesday across slo county...Then work down the
Forecast area into la county by wednesday eve. Would not be
Surprised if la/vtu/sba counties had some early morning drizzle or
Light rain as the warm sector of the front pushes in a deeper moist
Layer ahead of the approaching front. Rain totals will vary from
Around 1/2 inch in the north to less than a quarter of an inch in
Most areas to the south. However...There could be locally higher
Amounts across the santa ynez range and san gabriel mountains...But
Nothing to write home about. There will be some lingering low level
Moisture on thursday...Mainly around the mountains and foothills so
A few showers will be possible on thursday.

By friday...Two cutoff lows will combine into one just off the
California coast. Once again like the previous storm...This will
Have a negative tilt orientation which will cause a diffluent area
Over the region to help enhance rainfall rates. This will be a very
Dynamic storm with a 995 mb surface low to bring strong southerly
Flow ahead of the front...Precipitable waters over 1.2"...Good low
Level helicity/shear...And a 120 kt sw jet streak moving
Across/la/vtu counties. If models stay on track...You can expect
Periods of heavy rain...Especially across south facing foothill and
Mountain slopes including the san gabriel mountains and santa ynez
Range. There could be some waterspouts or weak tornadoes over
Coastal areas on fri into saturday. Still looking at 1-2 inches for
The coast and valleys...And 2-4 inches for foothills and mountain
Areas...With local amounts to 6 inches across the favored southern
Slopes.

Recent burn areas will have to be monitored for the potential of
Debris flows...Including the colby burn area in glendora and the
Springs burn area around in the camarillo areas.

Snow levels should be above 6000 ft on friday...Then lower to 5500
Ft by saturday. Expect plenty of snow at the higher elevations with
This system. Temperatures overall will remain below normal for this
Time of year. As the next rain events get closer...There will be
Additional and more detailed information disseminated.

Thanks eeek. I can only hope that we get more than a drizzle or 1-2 inches here.

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mtn man
Was looking at our local forecast here in Thousand Oaks and it shows something I haven't seen in years: a 100% chance of rain, this coming Friday. 100% !!

Los Angeles is showing 100% now.

.Long term...Wednesday through saturday...

Two storm systems are still on track to reach the eastern sierra
Between wednesday and next weekend. Confidence is becoming high for
Snow potential in the sierra with both weather systems, while
Heavier amounts are more likely with the second storm. For lower
Elevations of western nevada, precipitation is more likely to fall
As rain during the bulk of each event, with possible brief change to
Snow shortly before the storms depart.

The first trough will spread moisture into the sierra late wednesday
Into wednesday night. Although this system is projected to split and
Weaken as it moves inland, moisture should be sufficient for
Producing a decent period of snow in the sierra. Snow levels in the
Sierra may begin at 6500-7000 feet, then drop to lake level as
Intensity increases. Preliminary snowfall projections call for
Around 1 foot near the sierra crest and up to 6 inches around the
Tahoe basin. Main travel impacts over the sierra passes likely from
Wednesday night thru thursday morning. For western nv, precip will
Be more sparse with the best chance for measurable rain late
Wednesday night along the cold front north of highway 50 when the
Best forcing is expected. The rain may briefly change to snow in the
Foothills before ending as snow levels drop to near 5000 feet, but
At this time significant travel impacts are not likely for the
Reno-carson vicinity.

For thursday, the first storm departs with lingering showers
Tapering off early in the day. Shortwave ridge will likely bring a
Break in the precipitation lasting up to 18 hours before the
Stronger wave of moisture arrives on friday. There are some minor
Timing differences in when this break occurs so there is not a
Distinct dry period mentioned in the forecast at this time, but pops
In the sierra are notably lower compared to wednesday night.

For friday through friday night, medium range guidance is indicating
This storm to be stronger with better upper level jet support and a
Deeper moisture tap. The duration is likely to be longer, with up to
24 hours of steady moderate to heavy snow possible in the sierra.
With 2-3 inches of model forecast precip near the crest, this could
Translate to at least 2 feet of snow above 7000 feet. The overall
Track looks to be farther south compared to the wednesday night
Storm, with potential for mono county receiving even more precip.
The currently projected storm track would also bring very much
Needed moisture to southern california and the desert southwest.

For western nevada, rain amounts are less certain although it would
Be hard for any location to be completely dry from friday through
Next weekend. The south flow aloft would limit rain amounts and
Duration especially around the reno area with better potential for
Higher rain amounts south of highway 50. However, since this storm
Is several days away and subject to a different track, there is
Still plenty of uncertainty for lower elevation rain amounts.

Some increase in winds is expected with both storm systems, with
Some decent ridge gusts as 700 mb flow increases to 30-40 kt.
However, the potential for a significant downslope wind event for
The sierra front or western nv is low.

Even as the main moisture feed departs by saturday, the cold pool
Aloft should keep showery precip going, with some bands of locally
Heavier snow showers possible even into saturday evening. Mjd

&&