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ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory

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avatar ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory
March 05, 2015 12:17PM
Synopsis: There is an approximately 50-60% chance that El Niño conditions will continue through Northern Hemisphere summer 2015.

During February 2015, El Niño conditions were observed as the above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) across the western and central equatorial Pacific (Fig. 1) became weakly coupled to the tropical atmosphere. The latest weekly Niño indices were +0.6oC in the Niño-3.4 region and +1.2oC in the Niño-4 region, and near zero in the Niño-3 and Niño-1+2 regions (Fig. 2). Subsurface temperature anomalies increased (Fig. 3) associated with a downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave, which was reflected in positive subsurface anomalies across most of the Pacific (Fig. 4). Consistent with weak coupling, the frequency and strength of low-level westerly wind anomalies increased over the equatorial Pacific during the last month and a half (Fig. 5). At upper-levels, anomalous easterly winds persisted across the east-central Pacific. Also, the equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (EQSOI) remained negative for two consecutive months. Convection was enhanced over the western equatorial Pacific and near average around the Date Line (Fig. 6). Overall, these features are consistent with borderline, weak El Niño conditions.

Compared to last month, several more models indicate El Niño (3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index equal to or greater than 0.5oC) will continue throughout 2015 (Fig. 7). This is supported by the recent increase in subsurface temperatures and near-term model predictions of the continuation of low-level westerly wind anomalies across parts of the equatorial Pacific. However, model forecast skill tends to be lower during the Northern Hemisphere spring, which contributes to progressively lower probabilities of El Niño through the year. In summary, there is an approximately 50-60% chance that El Niño conditions will continue through Northern Hemisphere summer 2015 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome).

Due to the expected weak strength, widespread or significant global impacts are not anticipated. However, certain impacts often associated with El Niño may appear in some locations during the Northern Hemisphere spring 2015.

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