The latest research shows that while a decades-long trend toward thinner and sparser ice looks to continue, with warming from greenhouse gases and soot contributing to the change, expect a lot of variability along the way to a projected open-water summertime Arctic.
http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/03/22/new-light-shed-on-north-pole-ice-trends/?src=twt&twt=nytimesscience