Our winter storm progressions in CA in most recent years seem to be bimodal, that is, we have two peaks - one in the fall, and another coming in around late February-March. Their strength and durations vary quite a bit. Sometimes, the storms come every day for a month or more, like 2004-2005 and 2005-2006, and sometimes they just sputter few times and end, like in 2006-2007. It doesn't seem to matter how early or late the season actually begins. Thus, if this pattern holds, an early snowfall may *not* be indicative of a strong winter.
However, this is only guesswork based on general observations over the last half-decade. I have not seen any statistical models of this recent trend, and it could end anytime. I hope, whatever the patern may be this year, that we get a darn good dose of snow!
Wilderness forever,
Bruce Jensen