.Long term...Tuesday through friday...Still looking at two systems
To move through during the extended period. Until the 12z ecmwf came
In late during the forecast formulating process...There was good
Agreement on the overall pattern evolution. For now will not give
Much weight to the latest operational ecmwf due to its radical
Change on the second system.
Tuesday will see a deepening trough off the coast with a shortwave
Ejecting out from it that will pass through on tuesday. The day
Before we will have had some drying out in southwest flow...However
There should be enough moisture brought in with the wave to warrant
Keeping in the chance for thunder and showers in mohave county
Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Meanwhile the major trough off shore will continue to deepen and
Advance towards our area. Models have trended to move this system
Further north and delay its arrival. By wednesday afternoon
The sierra and higher elevations in the northwest will be having
Precipitation over them. Winds will be a concern with this system
Late wednesday afternoon and into thursday morning. Progs are
Depicting a 120-140 knot jet rounding the trough bottom then. If
This continues it likely wind warnings or advisories will be need in
San bernardino and inyo counties and possibly in clark. As noted
Previously blowing dust will likely be a hazard in the strongest
Wind areas which is in the grids for wednesday / early thursday for
Western san bernardino county. The trough axis will come through on
Thursday and have the precipitation move with the axis. This will
Have the best chances early thursday for our western areas and then
Shift to the eastern zones thursday afternoon and evening. For now
The system is progged on a more northerly course than previously
Expected and hence the best chance for precipitation will be in the
North...Although the entire area will have shot at getting something
Thursday. Since this system will move in from the northwest moisture
May be limited with this system...So expect rain and snow totals to
Be low. We should see quick clearing on friday as the trough exits
And a cool down in its wake.
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